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In the first half of 2024, factors such as the continuous release of macro policy effects, the recovery of external demand, and the accelerated development of new quality productivity supported the continued recovery of the national economy, achieving a year-on-year GDP growth of 5.0%. In this context, the operation of chemical fiber industry shows a recovery growth trend. Specifically, production on the basis of a low base of rapid year-on-year growth, the growth rate gradually fell; The on-load was generally at a high level, and downstream demand was better than the same period; Economic benefits increased significantly year-on-year, and operation quality improved; The growth rate of fixed asset investment picked up, and the actual new production capacity slowed down. However, due to the impact of trade barriers and geopolitical conflicts, the export volume of chemical fiber has declined.
Forecast of industry operation trend in 2024
At present, China's economy still faces many challenges, such as rising uncertainties in the complexity of the external environment and deepening domestic structural adjustment. In the second half of the year, the implementation of national macro policies will be further increased, and with the gradual implementation of various policies, the policy effect will gradually appear, which will play a positive role in promoting the stable operation of the economy and guiding industrial transformation and upgrading. For example, with the focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand, economic policies should focus more on improving people's lives and promoting consumption, increase people's income through multiple channels, and enhance the consumption capacity and willingness of low - and middle-income groups. In the industrial sector, we will continue to deepen the strategy of innovation-driven development, encourage enterprises to research and develop new technologies and products, raise industrial added value, and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Strengthen the guidance of expectations, enhance business confidence, and stabilize the market order; Expand demand, especially seize the opportunity of "going to sea", help enterprises expand the global market, and further enhance the profitability of enterprises and international competitiveness.
Under the expectation that the overall economic situation in China will maintain steady growth, the chemical fiber industry has the basis for maintaining stable operation. Raw material side: the driving force of crude oil price trend on chemical fiber price has weakened, and raw material cost will still be relatively loose; Supply side: The growth rate of new production capacity has slowed down, but in the case of a high base of production capacity, if continued high construction will also bring supply pressure; Demand side: The domestic market is expected to maintain medium-low growth, export sales are still under pressure. Looking forward to the future, industry enterprises should deeply understand the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party, and lead high-quality development with new quality and new strength. For example: strengthen product development and innovation, take the initiative to stimulate market vitality; Continue to promote the application of advanced manufacturing technology to improve labor productivity; Cultivate and develop new quality productivity and raise total factor productivity.
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